Top 5 X-Factors for the Diamondbacks to Make a Deep Playoff Run in 2025

By Bryce Lewis – Sedona Seams

The 2025 MLB season is shaping up to be a critical year for the Arizona Diamondbacks. After surprising the baseball world with a World Series appearance in 2023 and an explosive offensive campaign in 2024, the Snakes now carry the burden of expectations. But in a loaded National League with juggernauts like the Dodgers, Braves, and Phillies lurking, getting back to October won’t be easy.

For Arizona to push deeper into October this time around, several key players and developments will have to break their way. Here are the Top 5 X-Factors that could determine whether the D-backs are true contenders — or just another team fighting for a Wild Card spot.

1. Corbin Burnes Anchoring the Rotation

Arizona shocked the baseball world this offseason by landing ace Corbin Burnes on a six-year, $210 million deal — the largest in franchise history. The 2021 Cy Young winner and four-time All-Star gives Arizona a true frontline horse, coming off a 2024 season where he went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 195 innings.

Pairing Burnes with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly creates one of the NL’s more formidable trios. If Burnes can live up to his billing and remain the consistent, dominant presence he was in Milwaukee, the D-backs will be better equipped to match up in October with the likes of the Dodgers’ and Braves’ rotations.

2. Corbin Carroll Taking the Leap

Corbin Carroll's 2024 was a tale of two halves. After a rough first 90 games where he slashed just .212 with limited power, he exploded after the All-Star break, slugging over .660 with 14 homers in just 40 games. The late-season surge showed the dynamic sparkplug version of Carroll that earned him Rookie of the Year honors in 2023.

The D-backs need that Carroll — the MVP-caliber catalyst — if they’re going to push past the NL’s elite. Projections for 2025 suggest a bounce-back: .260+ average, 20+ homers, and 35–40 stolen bases. If Carroll can consistently get on base and produce at the top of the order, the entire offense opens up for players like Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suárez, and newcomer Josh Naylor.

3. Bullpen Dominance from Justin Martinez

The bullpen has long been a source of heartburn in Arizona — but Justin Martinez could be the remedy. In 2024, the 23-year-old flamethrower took a massive step forward, posting a 2.48 ERA with 91 strikeouts in 72.2 innings. With a triple-digit fastball and improved command, he’s now firmly in the high-leverage conversation.

If Martinez can solidify himself as a late-inning weapon — potentially even as the full-time closer — it would provide much-needed stability in a bullpen that has often lacked a clear identity. In the postseason, games are often won and lost after the sixth inning. The D-backs need Martinez to be their shutdown guy when it matters most.

4. Josh Naylor Filling the Christian Walker Void

With Christian Walker off to free agency, Arizona wasted no time trading for Josh Naylor, a left-handed first baseman coming off a strong 2024 campaign in Cleveland (.293/.354/.482 with 19 HR and 97 RBI). Naylor brings a different profile than Walker — more contact, less power — but his intensity and bat-to-ball skills are a welcome addition.

How quickly Naylor adjusts to NL West pitching will be a key storyline. If he can provide reliable production in the middle of the order, it helps soften the blow of losing one of the team’s most consistent sluggers. Naylor doesn’t have to replicate Walker’s 30+ homer power — but if he can hit .280+ with 20 homers and clutch ABs, he’ll be one of the most valuable additions of the offseason.

5. Which Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Do We Get?

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. might be the biggest wild card on this roster. His career has been a bit of a roller coaster due to injuries and other factors:

• 2018: .281 AVG, 11 HR in 65 games

• 2019: .277 AVG, 20 HR in 84 games

• 2020 (shortened season): .308 AVG, 11 HR in 57 games

• 2021: .276 AVG, 21 HR

• 2022: .291 AVG, but just 5 HR

• 2023 (first year in Arizona): .261 AVG, 24 HR, 82 RBI

• 2024: .279 AVG, 18 HR, 75 RBI
  

At his best, Gurriel is a well-rounded bat with gap power and a knack for run production. At his worst, he’s streaky and gets lost in the shuffle. The 2025 projections peg him around .270-.280 with 18–22 home runs and 75+ RBIs — but the D-backs need more than “average” from Lourdes.

In a stacked NL, every contender has star-caliber talent up and down the lineup. For Arizona to keep pace with teams like L.A., they need the version of Gurriel that hit .300 in Toronto and slugged 24 bombs in 2023. Consistency — not flashes — will be the key.

The Bottom Line

The D-backs have the talent. They have the speed, the power, and now, the frontline pitching. But to transform from a scrappy playoff hopeful into a legitimate NL powerhouse, it’s going to take more than vibes and promise. It’s going to take Burnes being an ace. Carroll becoming a superstar again. Martinez locking down late innings. Naylor stepping up. And Gurriel finally putting it all together.

If those pieces fall into place, don’t be surprised to see the Sedona Snakes flying high deep into October.